Today's stories that matter
Inflation stayed steady, keeping September rate cuts likely. The US tightened chip rules, AI hardware showed cracks, mortgage rates dipped, and duty-free imports ended.
📊 PCE shows warm-but-not-hot inflation; September cut odds stay high
July PCE rose 0.2% m/m (2.6% y/y) and core PCE rose 0.3% m/m (2.9% y/y). Spending stayed firm even with tariff-linked price bumps. Futures still price a high chance of a 25 bps cut next month.
Rates are the market’s gravity. In-line inflation supports a gentle easing cycle rather than an abrupt pivot.
🇨🇳 US tightens China chip rules: waivers for Samsung, SK Hynix, Intel set to end
Within 120 days, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Intel will need case-by-case licenses to use US gear in China. The change pressures US toolmakers (Applied, Lam, KLA), could nudge demand toward Chinese vendors, and may benefit Micron at the margin.
It sharpens a chokepoint in US–China tech rivalry, adding policy risk to semi-cap earnings and shaping where the next dollar of AI/data-center capacity lands.
🤖 AI hardware wobble: Marvell & Dell guidance cools the “picks-and-shovels” trade
Marvell slumped after weak Q3 revenue outlook and flat data-center guide; Dell traded lower despite solid prints. The cautious tone pressured AI hardware sentiment after Nvidia’s blockbuster results.
The AI boom is real—but capex cycles zig-zag. Expect leadership to broaden as investors recheck assumptions on unit growth, supply chains, and margins.
🏠 Mortgage rates dip to 10-month low, but buyers still hesitant
The 30-year fixed average fell to 6.56% per Freddie Mac, lowest since Oct 2024. Yet affordability and labor worries keep buyers cautious, and sales remain sluggish.
Slightly cheaper loans help, but total monthly payment vs. income is the real cap. Until rates drop more—or prices adjust—transactions and related spending stay muted.
📦 US ends the $800 “de minimis” duty-free import rule today
As of today, low-value packages no longer enter duty-free; standard duties or a temporary flat-fee option now apply. Expect more friction for cross-border e-commerce and possible price bumps as logistics adjust.
Margins and inventory turns for online retail may wobble near-term, while US producers gain a modest tailwind.