Today's stories that matter
Tariff-driven price pressures are emerging in US inflation. Tech supply-chain dynamics improve with eased export curbs, China’s growth shows mixed resilience, housing remains a drag under high rates, and crypto volatility underscores profit-taking risks.
🏷️ US consumer prices tick up 0.3% in June as tariffs kick in
The Labor Department reported that headline CPI rose 0.3% in June—the largest monthly gain since January—driven in part by higher costs for tariff-affected goods such as appliances and furniture. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) climbed 0.2%, matching forecasts, while annual inflation accelerated to 2.7% from May’s 2.4%. Market reactions were muted: US stock futures edged higher and bond yields held steady.
Emerging tariff pass-through signals a new source of upside inflation risk, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts. Long-term investors should brace for sticky price pressures that could keep borrowing costs elevated and weigh on real returns in fixed-income allocations.
🤖 Nvidia shares surge as US approves H20 AI chip sales to China
Nvidia shares jumped 3,5% after the US government signaled it would grant export licenses for its H20 AI GPUs, allowing the company to resume shipments to Chinese customers. The move follows CEO Jensen Huang’s lobbying in Washington and reverses curbs that cost Nvidia an estimated $15 billion in revenue and led to a $5.5 billion inventory write-off. Chinese giants ByteDance and Tencent are already placing orders, and Nvidia is readying its RTX Pro GPU to navigate ongoing restrictions.
Restored access to China—a market accounting for roughly 13% of 2024 sales—could recoup significant lost revenue and reinforce Nvidia’s leadership in AI hardware. Investors should view this as a catalyst for semiconductor sector momentum and a reminder of the interplay between geopolitics and tech supply chains.
🇨🇳 China’s Q2 GDP growth comes in at 5.2%, below expectations
Official data showed China’s economy expanded 5.2% year-on-year in Q2—slightly above forecasts of 5.1% but down from 5.4% in Q1. Industrial output rose 6.8% in June, while retail sales (up 4.8%) and fixed-asset investment (up 2.8%) underperformed. Property investment plunged 11.2% year-to-date, highlighting the persistent real-estate downturn.
The mixed data underscore that China’s growth remains export-led rather than consumption-driven—a dynamic that may cap global commodity demand and keep emerging-market equities under pressure. Policy easing is likely but incremental; investors should monitor stimulus measures and property-sector indicators for portfolio tilts toward Asia and related commodities.
🏠 US housing market flashes warning as high rates stifle demand
Moody’s Analytics’ Mark Zandi warns that 30-year fixed mortgage rates hovering near 7% have throttled home-buying and construction. Builders face rising inventories, price cuts, and dwindling incentives. Goldman Sachs now forecasts home-price gains of just 0.5% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026 absent a material drop in borrowing costs.
Housing comprises about 15% of US GDP and is a key wealth channel for households. A protracted slump can erode consumer confidence, weigh on related sectors—from appliances to financial services—and elevate recession risks. Long-term portfolios may need underweights to real-estate-sensitive equities and overweight duration exposure in fixed income.
₿ Bitcoin pulls back to $117 K after record high
Bitcoin briefly hit an all-time high of $123,091.60 on profit-booking but then slid 4.6% to $117,466, as investors secured gains and consolidated positions. Altcoins saw drops up to 10%, though on-chain metrics remain supportive of long-term bullish trends.
Crypto’s sharp swings highlight the need for risk-managed allocation within alternatives. While institutional inflows underpin a positive medium-term outlook, near-term volatility can disrupt unhedged portfolios. Investors should balance crypto exposure with diversification tools, such as trend-following strategies or low-beta alternatives.