Today's stories that matter
Consumer spending shows resilience despite inflation headwinds, the labor market stays firm, and tech earnings shine. Policy fights in Washington and steep homebuilder incentives underscore mixed market dynamics.
🛒 Retail sales rebound 0.6% in June, beating forecasts
After May’s unexpected 0.9% drop, U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in June—well above the 0.1% forecast—driven largely by price gains on tariff-affected goods. Core retail spending (ex-autos, gas, building materials, food services) climbed 0.5%, signaling underlying consumer resilience even as inflation bites.
Strong consumer outlays support Q3 GDP growth forecasts, though much of the gain reflects higher prices rather than greater volume. Investors should note that real consumption may soften if inflation persists.
📉 Weekly jobless claims fall to 221,000, undershooting forecasts
Jobless claims dropped by 7,000 to 221,000 for the week ending July 12, below the 235,000 expected. While auto-plant maintenance and tariff-related uncertainty weighed on some hiring, overall claims remain near historic lows, signaling a steady labor market.
A firm jobs backdrop underpins consumer spending and cools Fed expectations for imminent rate cuts. Long-term investors can view labor resilience as a tailwind for growth-sensitive assets, albeit with some upside risk to inflation.
💻 TSMC Q2 profit seen soaring to record levels
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a net profit of NT$398.3 billion (US $13.5 billion) for Q2 2025, a 60.7% year-on-year surge that comfortably beat analysts’ NT$377.9 billion forecast. AI-chip demand powered revenue growth, while a 12% YTD Taiwan-dollar strength and US tariffs modestly pressured margins, which nevertheless held near record levels
As the world’s leading contract chipmaker, TSMC’s blow-out earnings underscore that AI remains the primary growth engine for global tech, setting the tone for semiconductor stocks and the broader market.
🏛 House approves debate rules for three crypto bills after marathon procedural fight
After a nine-hour procedural vote—one of the longest in modern House history—the chamber adopted debate terms to advance three “crypto week” bills, including the GENIUS Act on stablecoins, the CLARITY Act on market structure, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act. GOP leaders secured passage by 217–212 after tucking a CBDC ban into the defense-spending bill, following a Trump-led push to win over holdouts.
Clearing debate rules is a key step toward enacting America’s first federal crypto framework, which could integrate digital assets into mainstream finance—though final passage still faces intra-party hurdles.
🏠 Builders slash prices, offer ‘outrageous’ incentives amid weak demand
In July, U.S. home-builder sentiment ticked up one point to 33—the highest since early 2023—but remains low as 7% mortgage rates and economic uncertainty keep buyers sidelined. To move inventory, 38% of builders cut list prices (the most since 2022) and 62% dangled incentives like mortgage-rate buydowns, closing-cost assistance, and builder-paid option credits.
Steep incentives may boost short-term sales but compress builder profit margins and could delay new construction starts. Related sectors—like lumber and appliances—may face headwinds if incentive-driven pricing becomes the norm.