What assumptions and inputs go into Retirement Planning and Monte Carlo simulations?

PortfolioPilot's retirement planning engine is built on a detailed financial model - not a single return assumption. Monte Carlo simulations run on a wide range of structured inputs that reflect your personal situation, portfolio composition, tax context, and planning preferences.

The system incorporates multiple categories of inputs:

1. Personal & Timeline Inputs

Current age
Retirement age
Life expectancy
Social Security start age
Inclusion of spouse/partner (modeled separately if selected)

2. Contributions & Savings Behavior

Monthly retirement contributions
Monthly taxable investment contributions
Max-out yearly Roth contribution (Yes/No)
Portfolio rebalance frequency

3. Income & Retirement Cash Flow

Social Security annual benefit
Pension and other retirement income
Lump-sum pension payout at retirement
Yearly taxable income (pre-retirement)
Monthly retirement budget (inflation-adjusted)

4. Current Asset Base

Starting tax-free assets
Starting tax-advantaged assets
Starting taxable assets
Consolidated connected accounts across investment types

5. Risk & Return Assumptions

Pre-retirement return rate
Retirement return rate
Risk preference (pre-retirement)
Retirement risk preference
Volatility modeling aligned with portfolio structure
Correlation assumptions across asset classes

6. Tax Modeling Inputs

Tax filing status
Country of residence
State/province of residence
Tax loss harvesting frequency
Withdrawal strategy (including tax-efficient sequencing)
Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) modeling
Portfolio management fee assumptions

7. Inflation & Economic Assumptions

Inflation rate (YoY)
Salary growth rate (YoY)
Macroeconomic forecast overlays within portfolio projections

8. Life Events & Irregular Cash Flows

Users can model one-time or recurring events such as:

Down payments
College tuition
Home improvements
Marriage or divorce
Big trips
Long-term care
Medical expenses
Reverse mortgage
Inheritance
Selling a business
Severance
Insurance proceeds
Charitable contributions
Roth conversions
Family support
Custom events

Each event can include:

Date range
Amount
Directional wealth impact

How Monte Carlo Uses These Inputs

Monte Carlo simulations generate thousands of potential market paths using modeled return distributions, volatility assumptions, and macro-informed forecasts. Each simulation path reflects:

Your contribution schedule
Asset allocation and risk level
Tax treatment across account types
Withdrawal sequencing
Inflation adjustments
Modeled life events

Rather than producing a single deterministic projection, the system estimates probability distributions of retirement success under varied market conditions.

The result is a multi-layer retirement model grounded in:

Portfolio mathematics
Tax-aware cash flow modeling
Macroeconomic assumptions
Personal behavioral inputs

Outputs are hypothetical and for analytical purposes. Actual outcomes will vary based on market conditions and individual decisions.

How optimized is your portfolio?

PortfolioPilot is used by over 40,000 individuals in the US & Canada to analyze their portfolios of over $30 billion¹. Discover your portfolio score now:

1: As of November 14, 2025

Global Predictions provides investment advice only through its internet-based application, PortfolioPilot, and only to individuals who are advisory clients of Global Predictions pursuant to written advisory Client Agreements ("Advisory Services"). The publicly available portions of the Platform (i.e., the sections of the Platform that are available to individuals who are not party to a Client Agreement - including globalpredictions.com and portions of portfoliopilot.com) are provided for educational purposes only and are not intended to provide legal, tax, or financial planning advice. To the extent that any of the content published on publicly available portions of the Platform may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Nothing on the publicly available portions of the Platform should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. All charts, figures, and graphs on the publicly available websites are for illustrative purposes only. Before investing, you should consider whether any investment, investment strategy, security, other asset, or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, and risk tolerance. You are also encouraged to consult your legal, tax, or investment professional regarding your specific situation. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investing involves risk. The value of your investment will fluctuate, and you may gain or lose money.

The contents of the Platform may contain forward-looking statements that are based on management's beliefs, assumptions, current expectations, estimates, and projections about the financial industry, the economy, or Global Predictions itself. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the underlying expected actions or future performance and future results may differ significantly from those anticipated by the forward-looking statements. Therefore, actual results and outcomes may materially differ from what may be expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements.

Note: our use of the term AI refers to all artificial intelligence models used including large language models, proprietary economic models that incorporate regression or dynamic factors, and machine learning methods like supervised learning.

1. As of November 14, 2025
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2. As of November 14, 2025
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3. $30B Assets on Platform as of February 20, 2025. Aggregated across all plans (including the free plan). Assets on Platform represent the total value of connected and manually inputted accounts (including assets like real estate and private equity) and does not in any way represent Asset Under Management as Global Predictions does not manage any client funds.

4. Global Predictions Secures a Winning Spot in Internacional M6 Financial Forecasting Competition

5. Comparison made to an individual with $1M AUM, paying an "average wealth manager fee" of 1.02% based on a 2023 study by AdvisoryHQ. 1.02% * 1M = $10,200 per annum. PortfolioPilot Annual Gold pricing is $20/mo * 12mo = $240 per annum. 240/10,200 – 1 = ~98% lower. Actual fees paid to any individual financial advisor will depend on specific financial circumstances and arrangements.

7. The 1.94% referenced figure represents the average calculated monthly continuous tax-loss harvesting gain over a 4-year period from 2018-2021 in the 2024-published JP Morgan report titled "Continuous tax-loss harvesting yields more potential for tax savings" (link).

8. Case studies presented are hypothetical scenarios and intended for illustrative purposes only. They do not represent an actual client, investment or experience, but rather are meant to provide an example of the intended investment process and methodology. An individual's experience may vary based on his or her circumstances. There can be no assurance that the Firm will be able to achieve similar results in comparable situations. No portion of this case study is to be interpreted as a testimonial or endorsement of the Firm's investment advisory services. The information contained herein should not be construed as personal investment advice.

9. The financial advisor described in this marketing language is referring to you, the reader. PortfolioPilot is meant to be an aid to the self-directed investor. "Complete financial advice" refers to the fact that PortfolioPilot includes tools for estate planning, tax optimization, net worth visualization, and scenario modeling, not just investment recommendations. See globalpredictions.com/disclosures for descriptions of conflicts of interest, use of AI, bias, and any other disclosures for Global Predictions Inc.

10. This analysis is based on data from publicly available reports, academic studies, and articles. Sources include Mullainathan et al. (2012): Study highlighting biases in financial advice and its misalignment with client interests; Morningstar (2024): Report on typical update frequencies from financial advisors; Bodnaruk and Simonov (2014): Research on the limited impact of financial expertise on investment outcomes; Financhill: Insights on hidden fees in financial advising, including expense ratios and transaction costs, as noted by Warren Buffett; Foerster et al. (2014): Study on the costs of financial advice, including average AUM fees of 2.43%.

11. $11M number calculated as 2024 YTD TLH savings study conducted across 24,000 PortfolioPilot users on November 18, 2024.

12. Based on assumptions and projections that may not reflect actual outcomes.