Investing

Gold Can be a Terrible Investment – Here’s Why

By
Alexander Harmsen
Alexander Harmsen is the Co-founder and CEO of PortfolioPilot. With a track record of building AI-driven products that have scaled globally, he brings deep expertise in finance, technology, and strategy to create content that is both data-driven and actionable.
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Gold Can be a Terrible Investment – Here’s Why

Gold often gets pitched as the ultimate safe-haven asset. When markets tumble, headlines scream, “Buy gold!” It’s been called a hedge against inflation, a store of value, and even “real money.”

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: gold has some serious downsides as an investment. Over the last 40 years, its performance trails equities, it produces no income, and in many cases, it adds little value to a diversified portfolio.

That doesn’t mean gold is worthless—but it’s not the bulletproof investment many believe it is. Let’s break down what gold really offers, where it falls short, and when it might actually make sense to invest in.

Key Takeaways

  • Gold’s long-term returns have lagged significantly behind stocks.
  • It produces no income—no dividends, no yield.
  • It can be highly volatile in the short term.
  • Gold may serve as a hedge in specific scenarios, but it’s not a growth asset.

Gold’s Track Record: Underwhelming Over Time

If you had invested $10,000 in gold at its 1980 peak—when it traded around $634/oz—you’d have about 15.77 ounces. By early 2024, with gold at approximately $2,066/oz, that investment would be worth around $32,580—a 3.3x return over 44 years.

Now compare that to the S&P 500: the same $10,000 invested in 1980 would be worth over $1.6 million today—with dividends reinvested. That’s more than 100x growth.

The point?

Gold might preserve purchasing power in certain inflationary environments, but it’s a poor vehicle for building wealth over time.

Gold Doesn’t Produce Anything

When you buy a stock, you’re buying ownership in a company that (hopefully) earns profits, pays dividends, and grows over time.

Gold? It just sits there. It doesn’t earn interest. It doesn’t produce goods. It doesn’t innovate or expand.

This means your only hope of profit is that someone else is willing to pay more for it later. That’s speculation—not investment.

It’s Not Always a Great Hedge

Gold is marketed as a hedge against inflation and economic chaos. Sometimes that’s true—but not always.

Example: During the 2008 financial crisis, gold did rise while equities fell. But in 2022, when inflation surged and stocks and bonds tumbled, gold barely moved.

Why? Because gold’s performance depends on a complex mix of:

  • Interest rates
  • Currency movements
  • Real yields
  • Investor sentiment

It’s not a guaranteed shield. It’s a tool with limitations.

Volatility Can Cut Both Ways

People think gold is “safe.” But it can swing hard:

That’s a major drawdown for something marketed as “stable”.

Gold can whipsaw based on central bank moves, geopolitical shifts, or even sudden shifts in investor sentiment. That’s not exactly comforting if you’re looking for peace of mind.

When Gold Does Make Sense

Let’s be fair: gold isn’t useless.

It may have a role in a few scenarios:

Portfolio Diversification

  • Gold is often uncorrelated with stocks and bonds, so a small allocation (often recommended at 5-10%) might reduce overall portfolio volatility.

Tail Risk Protection

  • If you’re worried about currency collapse, geopolitical crisis, or financial system failure, gold may act as a store of value in the craziest of situations.

Tactical Positioning

  • Some traders use gold based on macro signals—like falling real interest rates or rising geopolitical tensions.

Just know what you’re getting into—and why.

What to Consider Before Buying Gold

Before you jump in:

  • Storage and Insurance: Physical gold comes with added costs.
  • Liquidity: Coins and bars can be harder to sell quickly.
  • Taxes: Gold is taxed as a collectible in the U.S.—up to 28% on gains.
  • No Income: Holding gold long-term means no cash flow while you wait.

Also: avoid gold funds that charge high expense ratios for simply tracking the metal commodity.

Gold Performance & Portfolio Role — FAQs

How did gold perform from its 1980 peak through early 2024?
A $10,000 investment at gold’s 1980 peak, around $634/oz, would be worth about $32,580 by early 2024. That’s roughly a 3.3x return over 44 years.
How does gold’s long-term return compare with the S&P 500?
The same $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 in 1980 would have grown to over $1.6 million with dividends reinvested, more than 100x growth, far outpacing gold’s 3.3x.
Does gold generate income like stocks or bonds?
No. Gold produces no dividends or interest. Unlike companies that earn profits or bonds that pay yield, gold’s returns rely solely on price appreciation.
How volatile can gold be in short-term cycles?
Gold reached about $1,900/oz in 2011, then dropped to $1,050 by 2015, a drawdown of more than 40%. Such swings challenge its reputation as a stable store of value.
Did gold hold up in the 2008 financial crisis?
Yes. During the 2008 market crash, gold prices rose while equities fell, reinforcing its reputation as a hedge in times of financial panic.
How did gold perform in 2022 when U.S. inflation surged?
Despite U.S. inflation reaching multi-decade highs in 2022 and both stocks and bonds falling, gold barely moved, showing its limited reliability as a consistent inflation hedge.
What factors beyond inflation influence gold’s price?
Gold’s performance is shaped by real interest rates, currency movements, and investor sentiment. Shifts in these variables can outweigh inflationary pressures in determining price direction.
How is gold taxed in the U.S.?
Gold is treated as a collectible for tax purposes, meaning gains can be taxed at rates up to 28%, higher than long-term capital gains on stocks.
What role can gold play in a diversified portfolio?
A small allocation of gold, often cited at 5–10%, may help reduce volatility due to its low correlation with stocks and bonds.
Why might some investors hold gold despite low returns?
Some view gold as tail-risk protection against scenarios like currency collapse, geopolitical crises, or systemic financial breakdowns where traditional assets may falter.

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1: As of February 20, 2025