What should I do if my retirement success probability is low?

A lower probability is a signal worth taking seriously - but the best thing you can do is explore the inputs and see which changes make the biggest difference for your specific situation. Use the "Run what-if scenarios" section to test different combinations.

Factors worth exploring:

Retirement age - even a small shift can significantly change the outcome
Monthly retirement budget - how sensitive is your plan to spending changes?
Social Security start age - later claiming typically means a higher monthly benefit
Portfolio Score - a more efficient portfolio means better risk-adjusted returns
Monthly contributions - how much does saving more today change the long-term picture?
Roth conversions - in lower-income years, converting to Roth can reduce future tax drag

Try different combinations in the what-if scenarios to understand the levers that matter most for your plan. The goal is to find a path that feels realistic and achievable, not just to maximize the probability number.

Last updated on

May 24, 2026

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1. As of May 26, 2026
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2. As of May 26, 2026
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3. $40B+ Assets on Platform as of May 26, 2025. Aggregated across all plans (including the free plan). Assets on Platform represent the total value of connected and manually inputted accounts (including assets like real estate and private equity) and does not in any way represent Asset Under Management as Global Predictions does not manage any client funds.

4. Global Predictions Secures a Winning Spot in International M6 Financial Forecasting Competition

5. Comparison made to an individual with $1M AUM, paying an "average wealth manager fee" of 1.04% based on publicly available McKinsey / PriceMetrix industry data. 1.04% * 1M = $10,400 per annum. PortfolioPilot Annual Gold pricing is $20/mo * 12mo = $240 per annum. 240/10,400 – 1 = ~98% lower. Actual fees paid to any individual financial advisor will depend on specific financial circumstances and arrangements.

7. The 1.94% referenced figure represents the average calculated monthly continuous tax-loss harvesting gain over a 4-year period from 2018-2021 in the 2024-published JP Morgan report titled "Continuous tax-loss harvesting yields more potential for tax savings" (link).

8. Case studies presented are hypothetical scenarios and intended for illustrative purposes only. They do not represent an actual client, investment or experience, but rather are meant to provide an example of the intended investment process and methodology. An individual's experience may vary based on his or her circumstances. There can be no assurance that the Firm will be able to achieve similar results in comparable situations. No portion of this case study is to be interpreted as a testimonial or endorsement of the Firm's investment advisory services. The information contained herein should not be construed as personal investment advice.

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10. This analysis is based on data from publicly available reports, academic studies, and articles. Sources include Mullainathan et al. (2012): Study highlighting biases in financial advice and its misalignment with client interests; Morningstar (2024): Report on typical update frequencies from financial advisors; Bodnaruk and Simonov (2014): Research on the limited impact of financial expertise on investment outcomes; Financhill: Insights on hidden fees in financial advising, including expense ratios and transaction costs, as noted by Warren Buffett; Foerster et al. (2014): Study on the costs of financial advice, including average AUM fees of 2.43%.

11. $93M number calculated as 2025 YTD TLH savings study conducted across 24,115 PortfolioPilot users on November 14, 2025.

12. Based on assumptions and projections that may not reflect actual outcomes.