Why is my retirement success probability low even though I have sufficient assets?

A low success probability with significant assets usually traces back to one of these inputs in the Retirement planner:

Spending too high. Check your spending in the Money in & out tab. A high spending figure will eventually deplete any portfolio.
Life expectancy set very long. A longer life expectancy means the simulation has to fund more years of retirement, which lowers success probability even with large portfolios.
Income sources missing. Make sure Social Security benefits, pensions, annuities, or rental income are entered in the People and Money in & out tabs.
In-retirement risk too conservative. If your in-retirement risk preference is very low, expected returns drop and the portfolio may not keep pace with spending.

To compare which lever moves the needle most for your situation side-by-side, save each variation (different retirement age, contribution rate, spending, or rebalancing frequency) as a what-if scenario and switch between them on the projection chart. Rebalancing frequency itself is adjustable in the Retirement planner calculations.

You can also ask the AI Assistant: "Why is my retirement success probability low and what's the biggest factor I can change?" It analyzes your specific inputs and points to the highest-leverage adjustment.

Last updated on

June 4, 2026

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1. As of May 26, 2026
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2. As of May 26, 2026
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3. $40B+ Assets on Platform as of May 26, 2025. Aggregated across all plans (including the free plan). Assets on Platform represent the total value of connected and manually inputted accounts (including assets like real estate and private equity) and does not in any way represent Asset Under Management as Global Predictions does not manage any client funds.

4. Global Predictions Secures a Winning Spot in International M6 Financial Forecasting Competition

5. Comparison made to an individual with $1M AUM, paying an "average wealth manager fee" of 1.04% based on publicly available McKinsey / PriceMetrix industry data. 1.04% * 1M = $10,400 per annum. PortfolioPilot Annual Gold pricing is $20/mo * 12mo = $240 per annum. 240/10,400 – 1 = ~98% lower. Actual fees paid to any individual financial advisor will depend on specific financial circumstances and arrangements.

7. The 1.94% referenced figure represents the average calculated monthly continuous tax-loss harvesting gain over a 4-year period from 2018-2021 in the 2024-published JP Morgan report titled "Continuous tax-loss harvesting yields more potential for tax savings" (link).

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10. This analysis is based on data from publicly available reports, academic studies, and articles. Sources include Mullainathan et al. (2012): Study highlighting biases in financial advice and its misalignment with client interests; Morningstar (2024): Report on typical update frequencies from financial advisors; Bodnaruk and Simonov (2014): Research on the limited impact of financial expertise on investment outcomes; Financhill: Insights on hidden fees in financial advising, including expense ratios and transaction costs, as noted by Warren Buffett; Foerster et al. (2014): Study on the costs of financial advice, including average AUM fees of 2.43%.

11. $93M number calculated as 2025 YTD TLH savings study conducted across 24,115 PortfolioPilot users on November 14, 2025.

12. Based on assumptions and projections that may not reflect actual outcomes.