May 22, 2024

Tutorial: Security Explorer

Note: Specific investments described herein do not represent all investment decisions made by Global Predictions. The reader should not assume that investment decisions identified and discussed were or will be profitable. Specific investment advice references provided herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not necessarily representative of investments that will be made in the future.

Learn how to take advantage of the PortfolioPilot Security Explorer, a helpful tool to drill in to specific securities information for curious users that want to get as close to the bare metal as possible. Security Explorer is one of the tools in the Market Insights section of the platform, which you can navigate to from the top menu.

Expansive universe of securities

In order to power the Global Predictions Recommendation Engine, Knowledge Graph, and World Monitoring System, Global Predictions pulls in and processes a large set of 10,000s of macroeconomic series, linking them to over 50,000 securities. These securities include individual equities, ETFs, Mutual Funds, and currencies (including many cryptocurrencies).

The Companies selection dropdown allows you to choose the security you're looking for to retrieve more information.

Select from a large and growing list of securities

Non-obvious, insightful securities details

We have put together a relatively minimal set of the most important and non-obvious information that is useful for securities research. These factors are produced using Global Predictions core technology and helps power selection, recommendations, and other insights across the platform.

Detailed forecast:

This section shows information about how the individual forecasts are created, combined from a set of contributing forecasts. In the case of Apple, shown in the screenshot below, the expected return forecast is a combination of:

1) Market beta forecast for Apple (driven by risk and naive expectations with no alpha assumptions)

2) Total US stock market forecast

3) US Technology index forecast

4) S&P 500 index forecast

5) Proprietary Stats+ML forecast

The section also highlights other macro drivers that influence the forecasts and market moves of the security in question.

Transparent breakdown of how Global Predictions forecasts are assembled

Macro factor sensitivities:

The macro factor sensitivities represent the degree to which the security's return will be influenced by an upside or downside surprise to the given macroeconomic factor. These can be positive or negative indicating the influence by the macro market, it is the magnitude that determines whether its high or low impact. For reference, 0 to 3 is low, 3 to 7 is medium, and 7+ is high impact.

Macro factor sensitivity, an important metric of security selection

Security Explorer is a great addition to your investment research toolkit.

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1: As of July 14, 2024

Global Predictions provides investment advice only through its internet-based application, PortfolioPilot, and only to individuals who are advisory clients of Global Predictions pursuant to written advisory Client Agreements ("Advisory Services"). The publicly available portions of the Platform (i.e., the sections of the Platform that are available to individuals who are not party to a Client Agreement - including globalpredictions.com and portions of portfoliopilot.com) are provided for educational purposes only and are not intended to provide legal, tax, or financial planning advice. To the extent that any of the content published on publicly available portions of the Platform may be deemed to be investment advice, such information is impersonal and not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person. Nothing on the publicly available portions of the Platform should be construed as a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, to buy or sell any security. All charts, figures, and graphs on the publicly available websites are for illustrative purposes only. Before investing, you should consider whether any investment, investment strategy, security, other asset, or related transaction is appropriate for you based on your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances, and risk tolerance. You are also encouraged to consult your legal, tax, or investment professional regarding your specific situation. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Investing involves risk. The value of your investment will fluctuate, and you may gain or lose money.

The contents of the Platform may contain forward-looking statements that are based on management's beliefs, assumptions, current expectations, estimates, and projections about the financial industry, the economy, or Global Predictions itself. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of the underlying expected actions or future performance and future results may differ significantly from those anticipated by the forward-looking statements. Therefore, actual results and outcomes may materially differ from what may be expressed or forecasted in such forward-looking statements.

Note: our use of the term AI refers to all artificial intelligence models used including large language models, proprietary economic models that incorporate regression or dynamic factors, and machine learning methods like supervised learning.

1. As of July 14, 2024
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2. As of July 14, 2024
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3. $20B Assets on Platform as of July 14, 2024. Aggregated across all plans (including the free plan). Assets on Platform represent the total value of connected and manually inputted accounts (including assets like real estate and private equity) and does not in any way represent Asset Under Management as Global Predictions does not manage any client funds.

4. Global Predictions Secures a Winning Spot in Internacional M6 Financial Forecasting Competition

5. Comparison made to an individual with $1M AUM, paying an "average wealth manager fee" of 1.02% based on a 2023 study by AdvisoryHQ. 1.02% * 1M = $10,200 per annum. PortfolioPilot Gold pricing is $29/mo * 12mo = $348 per annum. 348/10,200 – 1 = ~97% lower. Actual fees paid to any individual financial advisor will depend on specific financial circumstances and arrangements.

7. The 1.94% referenced figure represents the average calculated monthly continuous tax-loss harvesting gain over a 4-year period from 2018-2021 in the 2024-published JP Morgan report titled "Continuous tax-loss harvesting yields more potential for tax savings" (link).

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