Investing

Is Private Credit Riskier Than It Appears?

By
Alexander Harmsen
Alexander Harmsen is the Co-founder and CEO of PortfolioPilot. With a track record of building AI-driven products that have scaled globally, he brings deep expertise in finance, technology, and strategy to create content that is both data-driven and actionable.
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Is Private Credit Riskier Than It Appears?

According to the IMF’s Global Monitoring Report, private credit assets topped $2.1 trillion in 2023—more than double their size since 2015. Many investors see it as a high-yield, low-correlation diversifier—especially in uncertain markets. But beneath the surface, hidden risks often go underappreciated.

This article explores whether private credit is as safe as it sounds—and what investors need to consider before allocating.

Key Takeaways

  • Private credit yields are attractive, but come with illiquidity, opacity, and hard-to-assess risk.
  • Valuations are typically based on manager discretion—not live market pricing.
  • Redemption gates and multi-year lockups limit access to capital during market stress.
  • Some investors use private credit to diversify—but it may correlate with risk assets during downturns.

The Appeal: High Yield, Low Correlation

Private credit refers to non-bank lending to companies, often through direct loans, mezzanine debt, or special situations. Private credit lending rates often sit in the 8–10% range, and with modest leverage can rise to 12–14%—well above typical investment-grade bond yields.

In theory, it’s also less tied to public market volatility. These assets aren’t marked to market daily, which can give the illusion of stability. Private credit NAVs tend to be smoothed—valued infrequently—which can mask underlying losses during market stress.

However, this smoothing effect is not always a feature—it can be a bug, hiding latent losses and liquidity mismatches. The next section explains why.

The Hidden Risks: Illiquidity and Limited Transparency

Unlike publicly traded bonds or ETFs, private credit positions can’t be sold quickly. Many funds have 1–3 year lockups, with redemption gates in times of stress. This structure can create a dangerous feedback loop:

  • Investors think the fund is stable
  • Withdrawals rise during volatility
  • Managers freeze redemptions
  • Perceived safety turns into real liquidity risk

Valuations are also opaque. Without daily market prices, managers often rely on models or subjective inputs. In stable times, this isn’t an issue. But in downturns, it can delay recognition of losses—just as risk is rising.

  • Hypothetical: Imagine a private credit fund that lends to mid-sized industrial firms. A slowdown hits, and defaults rise—but reported fund values barely move. Investors, unaware of underlying stress, hold or add to positions—only to face redemption freezes when they try to exit.

Credit Quality Can Shift Quietly

Most private credit borrowers aren’t household names. Many are leveraged, unrated companies that can’t access traditional capital markets. In a low-rate world, this risk was easier to absorb. But as rates rose, debt service burdens climbed.

S&P Global Ratings projects the U.S. speculative-grade default rate will reach 4.5% by early 2025, up from roughly 1.6% in 2021. Many private credit borrowers operate in this risk tier. Because private markets lack broad benchmarks or daily pricing, investors may not realize how exposed they are to deteriorating credit quality.

So what? This means some portfolios holding private credit may appear safer than they are—especially if investors use historical performance or smooth NAVs to estimate risk.

Correlation in Crisis

One of the biggest selling points for private credit is diversification. Because it doesn’t trade daily, its correlation with equities or bonds often looks low.

But during periods of market stress, correlations tend to rise. During the 2008 crisis, many structured credit vehicles experienced steep markdowns as liquidity dried up. In 2020, private debt funds faced significant redemption requests, prompting some managers to impose gates and markdown NAVs.

Historical patterns show that perceived diversification can collapse when liquidity disappears. As the old saying goes: “You don’t know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out.”

Behavioral Traps: Chasing Yield Without Seeing Risk

High headline yields can trigger overconfidence. Many investors anchor on stated returns, underestimate illiquidity, or assume past results will continue. These traps include:

  • Return chasing: Allocating heavily to recent winners without reassessing risks.
  • Inertia: Failing to rebalance even when market conditions change.
  • Overconfidence: Believing a fund’s “smooth” track record means it's safer.

Understanding how these behaviors shape decision-making is just as important as analyzing the strategy itself.

Private credit isn’t inherently good or bad—but its risks are often underdiscussed. A simple question—“Could I get my money out during a crisis?”—can be more revealing than any performance chart.

Private Credit Market & Risks — FAQs

How large is the private credit market today compared to a decade ago?
Private credit assets reached about $2.1 trillion in 2023, more than doubling in size since 2015, reflecting its rapid growth as an alternative to traditional fixed income.
What yields are typical for private credit lending?
Private credit lending rates often fall in the 8–10% range, with modest leverage pushing yields to 12–14%, significantly above investment-grade bond levels.
Why do private credit funds appear more stable than public bonds?
Unlike public markets, private credit NAVs are not marked daily. Valuations are infrequent and model-based, creating a smoothing effect that can mask losses during stress.
What liquidity constraints do private credit funds impose?
Many private credit vehicles require 1–3 year lockups and can activate redemption gates during volatility, limiting investors’ ability to access cash in downturns.
How does rising interest rates affect private credit borrowers?
Many borrowers are leveraged, unrated companies. As rates climb, debt servicing costs rise, increasing default risk and pressuring funds that lend to this segment.
What default rate projections highlight risks for speculative borrowers?
Speculative-grade defaults in the U.S. are projected to reach 4.5% by early 2025, up sharply from around 1.6% in 2021, underscoring mounting credit stress.
How did private credit perform during past market crises?
In 2008, structured credit vehicles saw steep markdowns as liquidity vanished, while in 2020, many private debt funds faced redemption pressures and imposed gates.
Why might diversification benefits from private credit vanish in stress?
Private credit correlations with equities and bonds often rise in downturns, meaning perceived diversification disappears when liquidity and credit quality erode.
What valuation risks exist in private credit?
Because pricing is manager-determined and not based on live markets, losses may be recognized late, giving investors a delayed picture of true credit deterioration.
What behavioral traps can private credit investors fall into?
Common traps include return chasing, overconfidence in smooth performance records, underestimating liquidity risks, and inertia in rebalancing despite changing conditions.

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1: As of February 20, 2025