A portfolio stress test estimates how much a portfolio could lose in a market crisis, and how long it could take to recover.
PortfolioPilot replays the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 Covid crash on a portfolio like yours, next to the S&P 500 and a global 60/40 portfolio. Both simulations are included in the Free plan.
This is the Simulations page with a hypothetical portfolio. Switch crises, flip between Drawdown and Cumulative, hover the chart, and click a legend item to hide a line.
Interactive crisis simulation from the PortfolioPilot Simulations page, shown with a hypothetical demo portfolio. It replays the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2020 Covid crash on a proxy of the portfolio built from its country and sector exposures, next to the S&P 500 and a global 60/40 portfolio, and reports the total loss and the recovery time. The chart switches between drawdown and cumulative return.
The portfolio is hypothetical, and all figures are for demonstrative purposes only. Nothing shown is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Both crises are built around real market history. The deeper the fall, the steeper the climb back.
In 2008 the S&P 500 fell 56.8% from its October 2007 peak to its March 2009 low. It took about 5.5 years, until March 2013, to climb back above the old peak.
In 2020 the S&P 500 fell 33.9% in five weeks, from its February 19 peak to its March 23 low. It took about 6 months, until August 2020, to climb back above the old peak.
Loss recovery calculator. Inputs: how far a portfolio falls from its peak, with presets for the S&P 500 in 2008 (a 56.8% fall) and 2020 (a 33.9% fall), and an assumed yearly growth rate while recovering. It shows the gain needed to get back to the peak, which is 1 divided by (1 minus the fall), minus 1, and the number of years that takes at the chosen growth rate, with a chart of the fall and the recovery.
S&P 500 price index, closing levels, dividends excluded. Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. The simulation uses total returns, so its S&P 500 figures differ slightly. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Three steps from your accounts to the answer.
Open Improve, then Simulations, and choose Global Crisis 2008 or COVID Crash 2020.
PortfolioPilot builds a proxy of your portfolio from its country and sector exposures and maps it through the crisis, since many of today's holdings did not exist then.
See how far a portfolio like yours would have fallen, and how long it took to get back. The S&P 500 and a 60/40 portfolio are shown alongside, so you can tell if you would have done better or worse than the market.
The result is hypothetical. These are the choices behind it, so you know what it can and cannot tell you.
PortfolioPilot builds a proxy from your portfolio's country and sector exposures, since many of today's holdings did not exist in 2008.
The test looks at your mix of countries and sectors, not at single companies. If one company you own drops on its own, the test will not show it.
Weights are held constant through the period, and no trading costs or fees are assumed.
The Future tab takes any scenario in plain English and uses AI to project the next 12 months. Custom future simulations are part of Platinum.
If the fall looks deeper than you can live with, Personalized Recommendations suggest specific trades and show how each one would change your Portfolio Score, Downside Protection included. Part of Gold.
Add your accounts or upload a statement. The 2008 and 2020 simulations are included in the Free plan.
Get startedShort answers here, with a link to the full help center article where one exists.
An estimate of how a portfolio would behave in a severe market event: how far it could fall, and how long it could take to get back to where it started.
Ask the AI Assistant, run a custom Future simulation, use pre-built historical simulations, or review Downside Protection in Portfolio Score. Read more in the Help Center →
It does not replay each holding. It builds a proxy from your portfolio's country and sector exposures and maps that through the period, which is why the result reflects your mix and not any single company.
Simulations runs historical and future-scenario backtests using real market data. The AI Assistant stress test is a flexible conversational analysis. Read more in the Help Center →
Downside Protection scores how well your portfolio resists losses, weighing diversification across asset classes, countries and growth drivers. Read more in the Help Center →
Yes. The Crisis Simulation tutorial walks through reading a historical result, the Drawdown and Cumulative views and the Future tab. Open the tutorial →
The 2008 and 2020 simulations are part of the Free plan. Custom future simulations are part of Platinum.
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