Monte Carlo retirement planner:
Will your money last?

A Monte Carlo retirement planner runs your plan through many possible markets to estimate how likely your money is to last.

PortfolioPilot runs 1,000 simulations with your accounts, budget, Social Security, taxes and life events, and shows your chance of success with the expected outcome and a stress test. Included in the Free plan.

Feature basics

Which plan you need
The retirement planner and its projections. Included in the Free plan
Simulations
1,000 market paths from today to your life expectancy
Result
Your chance of success, and two outcomes: expected and stress test

What does the retirement planner show?

This is the retirement projection for a hypothetical plan. Hover the chart to read total assets at any age.

portfoliopilot.com/plan?tab=retirement

Interactive retirement projection from PortfolioPilot for a hypothetical plan: total assets by age at the 50th and 10th percentile of 1,000 simulations, with the chance of success.

The portfolio is hypothetical, and all figures are for demonstrative purposes only. Nothing shown is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

How it works

How the retirement planner works in PortfolioPilot

Three steps from your accounts to the answer.

Step 1

Add your accounts

Connect brokerages, 401(k)s and IRAs from 12,000+ institutions, upload a statement, or enter holdings by hand.

Step 2

Set up your plan

Open Plan, then Retirement planning. Enter your ages, monthly budget and Social Security, or keep the defaults.

Step 3

Read your chance of success

See how often the plan lasts through your life expectancy, and how assets move at the 50th and 10th percentile.

How it is calculated

What goes into your chance of success?

The inputs you can change in the plan settings.

1,000 simulations

Each one draws yearly returns from your risk level and Portfolio Score, then applies contributions, taxes, withdrawals and RMDs.

Success means the money lasts

A simulation counts as a success if assets stay above zero, or above the amount you leave to heirs, every year through your life expectancy.

Amount to leave to heirs

Set a legacy amount and the plan only counts as funded if that much is still there at the end.

Investment management fee

Enter what an advisor charges and it comes off your assets every year of the projection.

Next step

Act on your investing recommendations

If your plan is off track, Personalized Recommendations suggest specific trades and show how each one would change your Portfolio Score. Part of Gold.

Related retirement planning features

See your chance of retirement success

Add your accounts and set up your plan. The retirement planner is included in the Free plan.

Bank-level security. Learn more
Questions

Questions about the retirement planner

Short answers here, with a link to the full help center article where one exists.

What is a Monte Carlo retirement simulation?

A projection that runs your plan through 1,000 possible market paths and counts how often your money lasts. Read more in the Help Center →

How do I read my chance of success?

It is the share of simulations in which your assets last through your life expectancy. 80% or more is On track. Read more in the Help Center →

What if my chance of success is low?

Try retiring later, spending less or changing your Social Security start age in a what-if scenario. Read more in the Help Center →

Is there a liquidity stress test?

Yes, on the Pro plan, for households with $3 million or more in net worth or with private equity. It checks whether liquid assets last through 10 years of a bad market.

Is the retirement planner free?

Yes. The planner, its projections and the chance of success are included in the Free plan.